Merrill Kelly
AZ · P
Will Merrill Kelly get more than 2.5 earned runs? Recent prop history isn't available yet.
Earned runs props are sensitive to run environment, matchup strength, and leash. Use this page for the price and game-log context, then compare to tonight’s broader slate conditions.
Merrill Kelly is not on tonight's slate.
Where are the best odds for Merrill Kelly earned runs?
Best price for more than 2.5 earned runs: Hard Rock Bet
| Sportsbook | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Fliff | -125 | -130 |
| Fanatics | -135 | -105 |
| Bovada | -140 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -111 | -119 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -120 |
How often does he hit this number?
Each bar shows earned runs per start. The gold dashed line is the most recent posted earned runs line (2.5). He went over 2 of 5 times against this line.
Statcast Numbers
Whiff Rate
15.6%
Bottom 3%Swing-and-miss rate · avg ~25%
Chase Rate
37.2%
Chases outside zone · avg ~30%
CSW Rate
22.6%
Called strikes + whiffs · avg ~28%
Under Rate — How often he stays under his earned runs line. Higher = he limits damage consistently.
CSW Rate — Called strikes + whiffs per pitch. Pitchers with high CSW tend to avoid big innings.
Want to know if Merrill Kelly is a bet tonight?
Sign up free. Our model tells you when the edge is real.
Sign up freeMore on Merrill Kelly
Related MLB research for earned runs
Explore More
Tonight's Games
Stats & Leaderboards
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the earned runs line for Merrill Kelly tonight?▾
The current earned runs line for Merrill Kelly (AZ) is 2.5. The odds table above lists the over and under price at every sportsbook that's posted this prop and highlights the best available price in gold so you can shop the line.
How often does Merrill Kelly go over on earned runs?▾
Recent earned runs hit-rate isn't calculable yet for Merrill Kelly — the prop_results dataset needs at least a few settled games to produce a meaningful percentage. Once enough games settle, this section will populate with the over rate and a game-by-game chart.
Where can I find the best odds for Merrill Kelly earned runs?▾
OddsGuy compares Merrill Kelly earned runs pricing across 8 sportsbooks: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Fanatics, Pinnacle, and Bovada. The odds table above highlights the best available price in gold. On the same line, even a small price difference (e.g. -110 vs -105) compounds meaningfully over many bets, so always shop the line before placing it.
Is Merrill Kelly's earned runs prop worth betting?▾
OddsGuy doesn't issue an official rating on individual earned runs props — that's what the live scanner inside the dashboard does. Use the line, the hit-rate trend, and the multi-book pricing on this page to do your own research, then check /dashboard/scanner (Pro) for the engine's promoted plays for tonight.
Merrill Kelly Earned Runs Prop Analysis Team: AZ | Position: P Line: 2.5 earned runs Odds: Fliff O-125/U-130, Fanatics O-135/U-105, Bovada O-140/U100, DraftKings O-111/U-119, Hard Rock Bet O-110/U-120